Analysts don't see a revoution at all...

[kav82]

http://www.gamespot.com/news/2005/09/29/news_6134710.html

Well there's an interesting read, I can't wait to see them proven wrong! (hopes)

Through 2008, Gikas and Wissink expect Microsoft to sell 19.6 million Xbox 360 units, with the PlayStation 3 and Revolution trailing at 15.5 million and 5 million units, respectively

But while the PS3 is expected to accelerate quickly and lead all systems with 8.5 million units sold in 2008, the ambitious Revolution is listed as starting slow (500,000 units sold in 2006), and lagging behind its competition with 2 million and 3 million systems moved in 2007 and 2008, respectively

[Demuwan]

I think that whoever made that prediction probably knows nothing about computer games.

[Stocka]

The analysts flopped.

[Wesley]

Analysts have been predicting the fall of Nintendo as far back as the SNES, nothing changes.

[Sarka]

I heard these are based on the current generations sales, and how they will decline ect. So I wouldn't worry much.

[Domstercool]

Analysts are just there to chat random crap, it's a fact! Nearly as bad as that job title I once saw on a program, "Professional Twins", like WTF?

[Kurtle Squad]

5 million?!?! No way!!
We dont even know the specs yet for a start. Or what games are gonna be out for it!!

[gorrit]

Meh, I don't think those analysts are right. For startes, I doubt the Xbox360 will sell as much, and I think the PS3 will sell better then that. And it's far too early to predict mostly anything about the Rev.

[DCK]

Analyst is a great job because you can say all the crap you want and you will be listened to. Seriously, making predictions at this point is useless.

I do think the 360 might have serious chance to outsell the PS3 though.

[MonkeyPunch]

With every new generation of consoles you'll never quite know who will end up on top.
Just before this generation many analysts guessed Microsoft's xbox would utterly flop. And it did...at least in the first 6 months or so after launch. Then came the price cut and drastic expansion of available titles...and what do you know? They beat Nintendo.

The upcomming console generation will be equally unpredictable. The numbers they've put up for the Revolution seem to me a little low. I mean Nintendo's got way more fanboys than that!
Personally I think Sony will once again end up on top, closely followed by Microsoft and Nintendo as a distant 3rd.

[Enigma]

That´s bullshit. Those two are clearly Nintendo-haters.

[YenRug]

Oh good grief, this is the same analyst report predicting a hard-drive fitted PSP come the middle of 2006, without any proof to back it up. Sony relies on people having to buy their memory sticks as a necessity, fitting a hard-drive would kill that extra revenue stream whilst requiring a redesign of the hardware to fit a HD internally. To see this same report containing those predicted sales figures just makes it even more laughable.

[triforce_keeper]

yeh w/e there just stupid dekuheads who think they know everything about gaming. yes I agree that this is based on current generation.

[McMad]

This is how i see it next gen:
Japan:
1. Nintendo
2. Sony
3. Microsoft

America:
1. Microsoft
2. Sony
3. Nintendo

Europe:
1. Sony
2. Microsoft
3. Nintendo

Japan:
With the phenomenal success of the DS in Japan it has been proved that being creative and innovative does create success. I can see the Revolution coming first definitely in Japan if it is released soon after the PS3. The reason for the PS3 coming is second is because this time it has competition at it's launch, even though the Playstation brand has a big fanbase the fact that it is the most expensive and hardest console to develope for next generation means: High costs at and not many titles either at launch. The reason for Xbox coming last is because it just doesn't appeal to the Japanese market, it isn't popular and it's only killer titles will be Dead or Alive and Final Fantasy 11.

America:
Xbox is way popular in America, as a matter of fact it would have probably beaten the PS2 this gen if they were launched at the same time. But next gen not only will Xbox be first but titles like Perfect Dark Zero and Halo 3 are sure to put Xbox 360 in no.1 spot. The reason for PS3 being knocked off the top spot is because of its price and lack of killer titles at its launch but later on it will pick up after a price drop or two and Sony will have a somewhat distorted smile their faces. The reason for Revolution coming last is because most of the Americans will simply not get it and for it being last to be released.

Europe:
Playstation comes first, reason: Europe loves Playstation.
Xbox comes second, reason: Being first to be released next gen and having more 'bloody' titles than Nintendo.
Nintendo comes last, reason: Europe hates Nintendo.

[triforce_keeper]

only most of europe hate nintendo. nintendo has got a small but effective (sp?) fanbase here in europe and think it will do pretty well in this generation but will still come 3rd.

[kav82]

Well, I guess I'd agree with McMad.

The numbers are far below what I expect the Rev will actually sell though!

[GoonFace]

This is how i see it next gen:
Japan:
1. Nintendo
2. Sony
3. Microsoft

America:
1. Microsoft
2. Sony
3. Nintendo

Europe:
1. Sony
2. Microsoft
3. Nintendo

Japan:
With the phenomenal success of the DS in Japan it has been proved that being creative and innovative does create success. I can see the Revolution coming first definitely in Japan if it is released soon after the PS3. The reason for the PS3 coming is second is because this time it has competition at it's launch, even though the Playstation brand has a big fanbase the fact that it is the most expensive and hardest console to develope for next generation means: High costs at and not many titles either at launch. The reason for Xbox coming last is because it just doesn't appeal to the Japanese market, it isn't popular and it's only killer titles will be Dead or Alive and Final Fantasy 11.

America:
Xbox is way popular in America, as a matter of fact it would have probably beaten the PS2 this gen if they were launched at the same time. But next gen not only will Xbox be first but titles like Perfect Dark Zero and Halo 3 are sure to put Xbox 360 in no.1 spot. The reason for PS3 being knocked off the top spot is because of its price and lack of killer titles at its launch but later on it will pick up after a price drop or two and Sony will have a somewhat distorted smile their faces. The reason for Revolution coming last is because most of the Americans will simply not get it and for it being last to be released.

Europe:
Playstation comes first, reason: Europe loves Playstation.
Xbox comes second, reason: Being first to be released next gen and having more 'bloody' titles than Nintendo.
Nintendo comes last, reason: Europe hates Nintendo.
I agree with everything apart from the comments about Europe.

[Kurtle Squad]

I agree with everything apart from the comments about Europe.

Well i agree with all of it to be honest.
One reason for this is that we had the Megadrive as the big one, not the SNES like the Americans & Japs (well, the Super Famicom)

[McMad]

I don't think Nintendo have ever been no.1 in Europe except with the NES.

[Advance]

Hmm, I think that it is most off UK hates nintendo. And most people take the UK as whole Europe.
Just to menstion it, Gamecube was pretty well in France and Germany if I remember correctly, and most off the people I know have or are willing to buy a Gamecube.

[Goron_3]

Well, when the Revo changes gaming and outsells its rivals, I'd like to talk to those analysts and ask em how wrong they were...and then they'd cry and go and buy and Revo! :hehe:

[gaggle64]

I don't agree with a lot of analysts around today. Many base their predictions on current trends, which shows a lack of understanding on how the industry actually works. A large number of qanalysts claimed that once PSP had launched, the DS and PSP would become relatively redundent - the PSP has sold strongly, but both the DS and even the GBA remain themselves very strong, and have shown that superior performance just doesn't win the console war (and it never has). Further more, I believe that many have underated GameCubes performance this gen. While many seem to believe that the console has been thourghly beaten by Xbox, this just isn't true. Gamecube has sold at least as many as Xbox across the world, and has remained highly competitive in all markets, even the currently hostile Europe, with Nintendo making a tidy profit. Also I honestly don't think that anyone can make anykind of accurate predicition until we know more information about all three competitors, including pricing, games and market strategies, which for the first time are likely to vary wildly between the three console manufactures. However, I do predict that all three will make a LOT of CASH.

[dazzybee]

Make a lot of cash!?! Different to this gen then when Microsoft LOST a hell of a lot of cash!!

I see it exactly how McMad does, though I think NIntendow ill close the gap in ALL markets and win comfortably in Japan. Worldwide though I expect

PS3
360 - Rev

[Mike]

Video game analysts don't know what they're talking about half the time. Although I think that the PS3 will totally dominate the next generation, on brand name alone, I don't think that Nintendo will do quite as badly as these analysts are making out. Sure it'll do badly in the UK, but I reckon it'll still hold steady second place in Japan, just like this generation. At the end of the day, though, there's no much point making predications about this sort of thing until we know more about all three systems in question.

[gaggle64]

Make a lot of cash!?! Different to this gen then when Microsoft LOST a hell of a lot of cash!!

Well, yeah, it will be. Microsoft have paid their pound of flesh (and a bit more besides) and now have a sizeable beach head in the industry from which to press their attack. Like I said - next gens gonna' be different.

[system_error]

Analysts do what they can best - exhaling hot air from their mouths and it seems they are quite successfull with that. Oh boy I saw so many predictions, surveys and the majority was wrong all the time. Political party ABC will gain at least 15% and in the end they lost the voting. Why? Because people are not like machines - you can never be sure otherwise life would be quite boring.

Of course it is easy to say that PS3 and XBOX360 will ship more units but how many in a certain time period is nearly impossible to tell. We don't even have a proper release date for the PS3 and the Revolution unless anyone really believes in a spring 2006 release for the PS3 hehe. But also analysts have to do something for their money and if some people want to trust that and buy a console just because of that - GO ON!


In the end its always "well that is what we said before - look it really happend" (too bad that most people can't remember what the initial statement was and now have to believe it).

[Jamba]

I think a lot of what will happen is dependant on a few factors:

1. Nintendo's success is purely based on being able to inspire the current gamers and being able to woo the non-gamers. The non-gaming community are Nintendo's biggest secret weapon in the next gen. Whether they respond or not is completely down to the games, which should appear more regualrly than this gen.

2. Download service. If the catalogue for download is extensive and inexpensive then I see loads of people buying the Rev as a second console as it has a huge games list which is (most importantly) only a click away.

3. PS3's price. I have a very funny feeling that Ken's ego is getting a little obese and he could end up screwing everyone big time. He's been saying some weird stuff, like how people should do overtime to afford their PS3 and that its a premium product. Wouldn't surprise me if the PS3 releases at over £400-450. How many Revs could you buy for this?

[Bowser57]

1. Nintendo's success is purely based on being able to inspire the current gamers and being able to woo the non-gamers. The non-gaming community are Nintendo's biggest secret weapon in the next gen. Whether they respond or not is completely down to the games, which should appear more regualrly than this gen.


Isn't it also that they make stuff cheaply and sell quite a lot of it?

[BeerMonkey]

Hi ill have a farmhouse pizza with extra cheese please

[Konfucius]

It's interesting to see, most (if not all) people on this forum could make better predictions than those analysts. After the success of the DS they should see that innovation sells better than better graphics (at least in Japan) but obviously they pulled their figures out of thin air instead.
I think the Revo will perform similar to the DS.
I guess it will come first or as a strong second place in Japan and second or even third in the rest of the world but since there are no prices and release dates for the Revo and PS3 available it's hard to make a reasonable guess.

[Mundi]

predicting before the all of the consoles are out is just plain silly and the specs aren´t even out and we don´t even know all of the games on launch

[kav82]

...they pulled their figures out of thin air instead...


Hmmmm, I'm thinking they pulled the figures out of somewhere else! :p

5mil only! Yeah right!

[wing]

In the end you cant compare what nintendo is doing with the other consoles. They are now on a completely different path from the one the other two console manufacturers walk, a path created by nintendo and sega in the first place. In the end people will buy a nintendo console no matter what. I mean the games industry just wouldn't be the same without a nintendo console.

[kav82]

...I mean the games industry just wouldn't be the same without a nintendo console.

URGH! I shudder at the thought!!!!!!!

[kav82]

Stupid thread title. Just because it doesnt sell doesnt mean it creates a revolution in gaming. By your logic, the Revolution will cease to exist because it has no chance in hell of becoming the best selling console Next Generation (Face it), thus rendering it a non-revolution.

BTW, I agree with the stats. (American stats, correct?)

Nintendo said it'll have a "revolutionary" new way of controlling, which I feel they have!

I was simply picking up on the word revolution (have a look what it means, how it can be applied) and used it to a different effect in the title of the thread.

It makes sense, but it doesn't mean I see it that way so it's not by my logic at all!

[Hostile]

Stupid thread title. Just because it doesnt sell doesnt mean it creates a revolution in gaming. By your logic, the Revolution will cease to exist because it has no chance in hell of becoming the best selling console Next Generation (Face it), thus rendering it a non-revolution.

BTW, I agree with the stats. (American stats, correct?)

The idea of the Revolution is based around forcing evolution in the gaming market. Sales are necessary for the other companies to pick up on the idea of 3D input as the main method of gaming. It makes sense.

That being said, analysts cant see the word for the trees.

[tandeh]

Well my prediction is, that if Nintendo wins the non-gamer, and then "it sells and sells" it will get the full backing of all small and major third parties in Japan with big titles, Remember (FF going to ps2). If that happens then as you know it games sell systems and this will make the rev take Japan, and as history shows, you win over the japan, you are on course to win the race.

If this happens early on, the Rev will get support from Major US third parties, especially once the get their hands on the controller, free online gaming + major 1st person shooters (including Nintendo's rumoured Halo killer) = tapping into to the massive online multiplayer FPS community in the US.

This could make the sleek REV win america, Europe would follow suit just through hype and sales figures.

All this hangs on the Nintendo's big risk, going for the non-gamer. But if Nintendogs, elektroplankton are anything to go by, the Big N has the expertise and R&D to agressivle go for the non gamers.

Nintendo needs to reveal the rest of the iceberg, as i personally believe nintendo ;) will have better graphics than the PS3, how?, do not underestimate the expertise of ART-X (ex silicon graphics engineers) and and Nintendo's experience in making robust, efficient consoles.
Remeber the rumour that rev will have "less hardware", well less hardware does not definately mean less performance.

If the Controller is not only the part of the revolution, then they may have something bigger to reveal, that they do not want Phony and microcrap to copy.

Remember someone saying the revolution lies under the mystery flap, my bet is some sort of portable screen, or player that lets you take the rev with you wherever you go, just a wil guess.

All Nintendo needs is to get people to turn on the Revolution and make them say "WOW", if they can do that then even Americans will buy it ;) LOL, they will say "Wow, great graphics, i want one" who from the casual, non-gamer would say "wow, great graphics, but how much megahertz and ram does it have" non, only the hardcore minority would do that.

All in all, i think the team of Iwata, shigsy and Reggie. are good enough and now humble enough to respect the third parties and deliver the goods to the different markets and beat the arrogant asses of Microcrap and Phony. :smile:

End of Analysis

[Wolfhound]

These Analysts always base on what the situation is 'Now' and are clearly using the fact that X-Box 360 has this miraculous so-called head start.

[Wolf]

Analysts, schmanalysts.

[Nick81]

Analysts don't often get it right, which seems to be why nobody really pays them much attention. When they are accurate, it's in a kind of catch-all "yes, Sony will be top next-generation, with Microsoft and Nintendo following."

[mbnmac]

http://www.skeptiseum.org/images/crystalball.jpg

[Wolf]

Before the current console war, I read analysts' predictions saying the GC would win because of its personality. Right.

[Avinash_Tyagi]

3. PS3's price. I have a very funny feeling that Ken's ego is getting a little obese and he could end up screwing everyone big time. He's been saying some weird stuff, like how people should do overtime to afford their PS3 and that its a premium product. Wouldn't surprise me if the PS3 releases at over £400-450. How many Revs could you buy for this?

Did he really say that people should work overtime to afford the PS3?

Man he's seriously insane, first the comments about the PSP and now this, if I was a Sony shareholder I'd be begging someone to slip him some heavy sedatives.

[paperwario]

like the comic book guy quote.
i think that if there is any console that i won't care about what the graphics can do, it will be this one. that could just be that i'm happy with cube graphics and i know revo's couldn't be worse.
ps...what's with all the paper people?

[xanikseo]

Nintendo will never die. Everyone I know that has a console has a GBA / SP! Even if the console market gets horrendous, there's nothing to worry about as Nintendo own 98% of the gaming market with portables (if I'm not wring). Nintendo will never die when they have portables out for sale. The GBA Micro beat the PSP in Japan! Nintendo have enough money to spare to make home-consoles, they'll only ever make profit. There's no point worrying about who's gonna buy what, aslong as Nintendo's portable market is strong. Just buy what you want, and stop complaining about Nintendo's home-console market if you are.

Out of every 10 people I know in Germany that has a console, nine have a GameCube, Europe isn't that bad, it's the majority of the UK that hate Nintendo.

[raven_blade2006]

Analysts only see what they want to see. Most of the time what they come out with is total garbage! I believe that they are afraid of embracing change and make stupid predictions that things will stay the same. The gaming industry needs a revolution and I hope it succeeds.

[demonmike04]

If this was predicted before the controller, I would forgive them.

The media attention and the developers interest cannot be denied. Revo has more attention to it already than gamecube ever had in its life time.

[ipaul]

I want that job, it must be so easy!!!! I predict that these analysts are wrong. Pay me.

[ipaul]

I'd love to have their job, it would be so easy ;). I predict their wrong. Pay me.

[Innovance]

i want to know why analysts never look at the markets history? If they did they'd surely know that the best predicitions they could make were general ones. Further more there are too many unknowns. And the seem to think the market is booming yet there are so many companys going out of business. id love to right my own market analysis and predictions. But i know the closest i can predict is what each console has going for it and against it there are far too many variables to say this many million.

lol oh yeh and brand is overated, ask nintendo and sega